Questions

Having signed up to a study involving Delphi method, I had to sit in front of computer answering bunches of questions this afternoon.

Now I should mention: that's a rather boring exercise when we're supposed to mull over a set of questions over multiple rounds. Delphi studies can - by their very nature - be repetitive. And downright time-consuming too. We do have opinions, of course, when we are being asked about judgment like "important uncertainty", "possibly important uncertainty", "probably no important uncertainty", "no important uncertainty", and so forth. But we will have to amend each round after gathering the anonymized views of others. The process of answering and modification of answers is long, that much is known, and we can't chicken out. And yadda yadda, we will come to a consensus step by step, round by round. Structured, systematic, and ah yes, stodgy.

After spending time on the Delphi study, I went home and decided to pick up something more witty and enjoyable. I was so happy finally to read some questions that differ from those "important" stuff. That's a pair of questions constructed by Dan Gilbert. Answer them and you'll see what I mean:

1. On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 refers to no change at all and 10 refers to drastic and complete changes, by how much have your ideas, beliefs and preferences changed in the past ten years?
2. On the same scale of 1 to 10, by how much do you expect your ideas, beliefs and preferences to change in the next ten years?

Do you have higher score for the first question or the second question? Hey, if you have a higher score for the first question than the second, think again. Go and read up about the "end of history" illusion.